From the Desk of Nick Nicolaas
“LOOKING OVER THE HORIZON”
Analysis of the September 30/October 1, 2015 (2015.75) Turning Point
Including excepts of my September 29, 2015 FDNN letter disseminated to my Paid-for Subscribers
October 4, 2015
On Tuesday September 29, 2015 I disseminated my FDNN letter to my Paid-for Subscriber list with an advanced warning of the September 30/October 1, 2015 (2015.75)Turning Point in which I stated (Please Note: In this Free letter when I refer to my September 29 Paid-for FDNN letter it will be in Quotation Marks “….”).
“I hope to do better than just SURVIVE and taking advantage of what I learned over the years, I want to make as much money as possible Trading.
The key to investing and Trading is being able to read the Markets in advance. Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model (ECM) gives us the sequence of Events (the TREND) many years before the Events occur and his artificial intelligent computer “Socrates” gives us in-time Forecasts to benefit our Trades.
Soon Socrates will be fully functional and together with my Broker Paul Manson who has a lifetime of trading experience, we will then start to navigate and Trade on the basis of the Socrates forecasts.
We will subscribe to several levels of clear Trading forecasts that Martin Armstrong’s Socrates will provide us and I will inform all of our Subscribers who support this Paid-for FDNN letter of the Trades we will be making based on those forecasts by Socrates.
Paul Manson and I will be as conservative in our trades as is prudently possible. Initially our trades will be based on the Weekly and Monthly Socrates ‘Reversals’ & ‘Trading Recommendations’.
The Trading recommendation by Socrates will include LONG and SHORT position and COVERING thereof as well as BUY & SELL STOP ORDERS. If you would like to start learning the type of orders we will use then go to Trading Orders Used.
The following will give you my Analysis of the Economic Confidence Model’s (ECM) September 30/October 1, 2015 Turning Point
I received a question from one of my readers on October 2, 2015. His question and my answer to him, goes right to the crux of my Turning Point Analysis:
Q: Nick is it my imagination or are Marty's forecasts stated in his blogs a little off? He is not really sure of the outcome on the markets due to 2015.75 turning point. His charts and models may be showing too many mixed short turn readings?
A: I am just working on my Free FDNN letter that will go out [Sunday Oct 4] and I will explain the TREND vis a vis specifics outcomes in the Markets.
The TREND vs Specifics Outcomes in the Markets
As I stated on October 29 “Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model (ECM) gives us the sequence of Events (the TREND) many years before the Events occur and his artificial intelligent computer “Socrates” gives us in-time Forecasts to benefit our future Trades.”
Therefore, the TREND is an ECM forecast which gives us advance notice and Socrates gives us specifics outcomes in the Markets upon which we can base our Trading.
The following are some of the item points I covered in my Paid-for FDNN letter on on Tuesday September 29, 2015
“1. The DOW
We focus on the DOW because, that is where the BIG MONEY invests and where BOG MONEY can park large blocks of money. The DOW is our bellwether and a harbinger to the NASDAQ and the S&P500.
We did not close last week below 16280 in the DOW. A weekly close below the 16280 would have warned us of lower lows ahead where we might test the August low of 15370 going into October. There is no certainty that the August low of 15,370 will hold and we may see the DOW lower than that. The failure to close above 17007 confirms that we are not yet ready to take off to the upside.
We may even see THE low in the DOW show itself tomorrow or on Thursday.
In any event, we are looking for a Slingshot move in the DOW, where in one year we will see a crash and during that same year a swing to the upside to new highs.
Gold’s rally into the target weeks for the ECM appear to be linked to the potential crisis in European banking. This has nothing to do with the dollar, fiat, inflation, the Fed or whatever.
We have a crisis in confidence and a crisis in German banking during the ECM target (tomorrow and Thursday), which will shake the tree of public confidence on a major global level.
Gold is staying above the 50 DMA of 1116 and below the 200DMA of 1179 which to me is no-man’s-land. We need a decision one way or the other. We really need to see a weekly closing above 1188 to think that there is some sustainability short-term. We need that signal to reach the technical resistance in the mid-1200 level.
The lower Gold goes (we are still expecting Gold to break below $939.50), the higher we will see it go up again once we resume the bull leg of the Gold market. Eventually, we are looking for a Slingshot move in Gold as well.
We don’t know where the floor in Gold is. It could go to the mid $600 area or it may opt to spike down quickly below $939.50 and then move above it again as it did with the $251.50 price in August of 1999.
This month-end on Wednesday, September 30, 2015 should give us a better picture as to the near-term direction of the DOW and Gold.
We are facing a tremendous shift in monetary policy, investor expectations and investment trends. Worldwide governments are NOT trusted any longer. The contagion has begun. It is starting in Europe and the next stop in a peak in Bonds is Japan.
The Fed has been warning that they must raise rates to re-establish “normalcy” to the yield curve and consequently, look for higher interest rates.
Germany, the primary driving force holding the Euro and Europe together, faces a several major shocks (Banking crises, Volkswagen). The European refugee problem seems to be the straw breaking the camel’s back.
Consequently, money is flowing out of government Bonds worldwide and into the US$ (into US$ cash first and from there into the US Markets (DOW, NASDAQ, S&P500).
4. General Analysis
Near-term DOW down (be ready for fear - which is more powerful than greed); Near-term Gold up (flight to safety); Near-term and intermediate-term Bonds down (flight from government); Euro down; and US$ up (Money Flows).”
I also recommended three (3) investments to my Paid-for FDNN letter Subscribers, one of those recommendations you, the Free FDNN letter readers, are already aware of:
“ I alerted you to Meadow Bay Gold (TSX: MAY - OTCQB: MAYGF) as early as March 2014 and since then I have patiently followed its progress. They already have a resource at the Atlanta Gold project in Nevada but now, after finally getting long-awaited drill permits, they have mobilized to do the infill-drilling and then, as I expect, expand that resource at the existing deposit (see September 24, 2015 Press Release).
I expect to make many times return on my Investment soon! “
Analysis of the September 30/October 1, 2015 Turning Point
I stand by Items 1 - 4 noted above however, I should have covered one more Item of which Martin Armstrong has made us aware and that is: The Cycle of War & Political Change.
I try to cover as much as possible in my FDNN letters but, I should not have left out The Cycle of War & Political Change. Yes Friends, War & Political Change is exactly what happened last Wednesday.
The number of significant events that have unfolded precisely on Wednesday 9/30/2015 (2015.75) is shocking indeed. A) At the United Nations, they raised the Palestinian flag for the first time. This is truly a monumental Political Change involving the Middle East; B) The unleashing of Russian airpower and troops into Syria in support of the Syrian government.
Reports that China has entered the game by sending in troops to Syria is creating a threat of War starting as Russia and China seem to be in alignment in Syria and both are opposed to U.S. policy in the Mideast. There is a direct confrontation taking place all because U.S. policy trying to topple what it calls “dictatorships” from Iraq, Libya, and now Syria. This policy, dreamed up in Washington, has no end game objective and is the biggest threat to starting a major War in the Mideast.
This Turning Point last Wednesday was centered on War and in government (Political Change); NOT in the Markets.
The number of government issues coming to a head is just mind-blowing; from the Catalonia vote to separate from Spain, to the resignation of Boehner in the US, to non-politicians leading across the globe.
It is extremely curious that this is beginning precisely on the day of the ECM Turning Point last Wednesday. Will this prove to be the start of an international War?
So while cash is now king, stocks remain vulnerable and commodities have no bid to sufficiently change the TREND. It appears we are heading into the wonderland of our political economy.
All that I have written above is from following since 1985 Martin Armstrong and constantly reading his BLOG!
* * *
It is all about making money and wealth building!
Stay Tuned for our Next FDNN letter!
Call me or e-mail me at any time with questions or comments.
Happy investing from Mining Interactive Corp. in sunny Vancouver, Canada.
Nick L. Nicolaas
Direct: +1 (604) 657-4058