May 8, 2016
In our last letter on April 20 we said, we were waiting for Socrates (SOC) confirmation before we were ready to make our next trade. However, our Analytic Team studies not only SOC for its final analysis, there are also Letterwriter-friends that we know trust and rely on before we finalize our overall analysis.
That was exactly the case when we made the 3 X SHORT trade at 11:20am (PST) last Thursday. We disseminated that Trade immediately to our Paid-for subscribers with Message#32 and then, after the Market Close, we disseminated Message #33 explaining why we made that 3 X SHORT trade.
Martin Armstrong (MA) in his May 6 Blog said:“In the Dow, we have technical support at 17573 and a Daily Bearish Reversal at 17568. At the time of this posting, the Dow is trading at 17633 and the low has been 17580. A closing beneath this level will warn we could see a decline into the week of the 16th. The primary Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 17120. Electing that would signal a potential sharp drop of 1,000 points. Otherwise, we are churning. Holding this technical support today still leaves this market in a position for a two-week rally and new highs cannot yet be eliminated. We would not expect any major follow-through. This topping pattern is similar to when the Dow tested the 1000 level four times before it finally broke out to the upside in 1985 with the start of this Private Wave.
When we look at timing, we can see that the weeks of the 16th and 30th are the key targets, with a Panic Cycle coming into play the week of June 6. We have a Directional Change also the week of the 16th, so ideally whatever we get the week of the 16th should be followed by the opposite trend for two weeks thereafter into the week of the 30th. We do see Directional Changes clustering in mid-June and a rise in volatility the week of June 20th, which just so happens to be the BREXIT vote.”
Whereas, we really like the Risk/Reward, we may buy some more that 3X Short instrument and if MA is right about the potential of a 2-week rally in the Dow, then we will have an opportunity to average down on our 3X Short position.
Preface: The following analysis by SOC for Monday May 9, 2016 is only a tiny bit of the overall analysis SOC provides us with on a daily basis in the Beta test ‘Trader Level’. MA says that as humans we are driven by our emotions but, SOC the computer, is totally emotion free and he also says that the SOC analysis is superior to his human interpretations.
Through MA’s Blog as well as his Private Blog supplied to us within the ‘Investor Level’ service, MA interprets the SOC analysis the best as is humanly possible. Our Analytic Team works 24/7 to interpret and unravel the SOC daily market analysis and the subsequent MA interpretation of that analysis.
It certainly is worth your while to subscribe to the ‘Investor Level’ service.
SOC for May 9, 2016 with regard the US$ Index Futures: “We should see a trend change come August in THE US$ INDEX FUTURES so pay attention to events ahead. Since the high of 96.42 established on Monday March 28, we have declined into a low at 91.88 created on Tuesday May 3 overall for 26 days electing in the process 4 Daily Bearish Reversals. The low formed at 91.88 is still within technical channel support which rest down at 89.251.
Consequently, this market has bounced from that low established the past 3 days trading sideways. We have not elected any Daily Bullish Reversals so we need to focus on 94.83 as closing resistance. A closing above this will show some strength. Ultimately, a Daily Closing above 96.43 will signal a retest of the last high at 96.42 and potentially a breakout to new recent highs.
Since the last low of 95.025 established the Week of October 2015 12, the market has continued to press higher reaching 100.6 after a 7 week rally peaking the Week of November 2015 30. This market has not exceeded last year's high of 100.785, which is about .1838966% above the market yet we have not penetrated last year's low of 90.8 either. Moreover, we have consolidated for the past 22 weeks from this last recent high. So far the rally has been a slight bounce rising only 7.21% from the low. We have elected three Weekly Bearish Reversals from the high of Week of November 2015 30. We need to focus on support at 92.51. This is the level to watch on a closing basis. If that is breached, then that high should stand for now a retest of support becomes likely.
Since the last low of 80.63 established during May 2014, the market has continued to press higher reaching 100.785 after a 10 month rally peaking during March 2015. Moreover, we have consolidated for the past 13 months from this last recent high. So far the rally has been a respectable advance measuring some 27%. Currently, we have not elected any Monthly Bearish Reversals from this new high. The immediate Monthly Bearish Reversal to watch lies at 87.804. A closing beneath this level will signal a temporary high is in place. Additionally, a closing beneath 94.765 would also imply a technical based pause in the uptrend for now. This rally has elected all the Monthly Bullish Reversals from the low ofMay 2014. We need to exceed the high of 100.785 on a closing basis to push this rally further.”
Trend Indicators for May 9, 2016
Immediate Trend........... BULLISH
Short-Term Momentum....... BULLISH
Short-Term Trend.......... BULLISH
Intermediate Momentum..... - Neutral -
Intermediate Trend........ (Bearish)
Long-Term Trend........... (Bearish)
Cyclical Strength.......... (Bearish)
Broader Trend............. (Bearish)
Long-Term Cyclical Trend... (Bearish)
SOC for May 9, 2016 with regard Gold: “We should see a trend change come May in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Since the last key low of 1064.5 established on Thursday December 2015 3, the market has continued to press higher reaching 1306 after a 107 day rally peaking on Monday May 2. This market has not exceeded last year's high of 1307.8, which is about .1378254% above the market yet we have not penetrated last year's low of 1045.4 either. Moreover, we have consolidated for the past 4 days from this last recent high. So far the rally has been a respectable advance measuring some 24%. Currently, we have not elected any Daily Bearish Reversals from this new high. The immediate Daily Bearish Reversal to watch lies at 1241.3. A closing beneath this level will signal a temporary high is in place. Additionally, a closing beneath 1289.6 would also imply a technical based pause in the uptrend for now. This rally has elected all the Daily Bullish Reversals from the low of Thursday December 2015 3. We need to exceed the high of 1306 on a closing basis to push this rally further. .
Since the last low of 1088.3 established the Week of November 2015 30, the market has continued to press higher reaching 1306 after a 22 week rally peaking the Week of May 2. This market has not exceeded last year's high of 1307.8, which is about .1378254% above the market yet we have not penetrated last year's low of 1045.4 either. So far the rally has been a respectable advance measuring some 24%. Last week, Week of May 2, was a new high at 1306, which was up for 5 weeks from the last minor low the Week of March 28 at 1206. This market has been very strong electing all four Bullish Reversals from that last low as well. Currently, we have not elected any Weekly Bearish Reversals from this new high. The immediate Weekly Bearish Reversal to watch lies at 1225.3. A closing beneath this level will signal a temporary high is in place. Additionally, a closing beneath 1270.6 would also imply a technical based pause in the uptrend for now. Technical projected resistance for tomorrow stands at 1326. Only exceeding that level would imply a runaway breakout to the upside.
Since the high of 1392.6 established during March 2014, we have declined into a low at 1045.4 created during December 2015 overall for 21 months electing in the process 4 Monthly Bearish Reversals. The low formed at 1045.4 did penetrate the technical channel at 1189.4 which offered initial resistance. However, this is now offered some technical support since we have closed back above this level.
Consequently, NY Gold Nearest Futures has bounced from that low established during December 2015 for 4 months creating a reaction high at 1299 during April failing to exceed the previous high. We elected the three Monthly Bullish Reversals from that low at 1045.4. We need to focus on overhead resistance at 1361.9 on a closing basis. A closing above this number will imply a further rally briefly. Failure to achieve such a closing warns of a retest of support. From the reaction high at 1299, we have not yet elected any Bearish Reversals so support lies at 1240.3.
Trend Indicators for May 9, 2016
Immediate Trend........... BULLISH
Short-Term Momentum ....... - Neutral -
Short-Term Trend .......... - Neutral -
Intermediate Momentum..... BULLISH
Intermediate Trend........ BULLISH
Long-Term Trend........... BULLISH
Cyclical Strength.......... BULLISH
Broader Trend............. BULLISH
Long-Term Cyclical Trend... BULLISH
Above, we mentioned our Letterwriter friends we follow, read and study. One of these professionals is Gwen Preston with Resource Maven. Gwen’s analysis is long term and focused on the Resource Markets.
This is what Gwen stated in her Monday May 2, 2016 letter:
“Gold and gold stocks may correct over the summer, but they also might not. Positioning now has you prepared in case of the latter. If there is a correction, remember to keep it in context. Buying right at the bottom is great but what will really matter as the gold market gets going is that you established positions within the broad bottom and held on for the ride.”
That certainly is sage advice by Gwen. For those of you in or near Vancouver you will be able to meet Gwen at the Metals Investor Forum to be held at the Hotel Georgia in downtown Vancouver May 14 & 15. Several of our Letterwriter-friends will be speaking at this Forum as well including: Eric Coffin, Brent Cook, Brien Lundin and some great guest speakers. It promises to be a day of shop talk and investment ideas that will add to your financial Health and Wealth. I will be there as well because, I don’t want to miss this and neither should you.
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Friends it’s all about profitable trading!
Stay Tuned for our Next free of charge TBOS
Trading Based on Martin Armstrong’s “Socrates” Alerts
Regards from Mining Interactive Corp. in Vancouver, Canada
Nick L. Nicolaas
Direct: +1 (604) 657-4058
Nick L. Nicolaas; Mining Interactive Corp. and its Associates (collectively referred to as NLN) are not registered advisors and do not give investment advice. NLN’s trading comments are an expression of opinion only. NLN may have an investment in some of the companies or trading instruments NLN mentions or writes about, nothing should be construed in any manner whatsoever as a recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While NLN believes all statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of NLN’s sources. NLN recommends that you consult a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by the appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions and NLN urges you to confirm the facts on your own regarding any trades or companies NLN mentions before making important investment commitments. The “Trading Based on Martin Armstrong Socrates alerts” and the “Stock and Private Placement” alerts written and distributed by NLN do not, and cannot, constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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The material in the “Trading Based on Martin Armstrong Socrates Alerts” and the “Stock and Private Placement” alert letter published by Nick L. Nicolaas is for informational purposes only and is not intended to and does not constitute the rendering of investment advice or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities. The “Trading Based on Socrates” and the “Stock and Private Placement” alert discussion contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (The Act). In particular when used in the preceding discussion the words “plan,” confident that, believe, scheduled, expect, or intend to, and similar conditional expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements subject to the safe harbor created by the ACT. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties and actual results could differ materially from those expressed in any of the forward looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to future events and financial performance of the company which are inherently uncertain and actual events and / or results may differ materially. In addition we may review investments that are not registered in the U.S. We cannot attest to nor certify the correctness of any information in this note. NLN owns shares in Meadow Bay Gold Corporation. Please consult your financial advisor and perform your own due diligence before considering any companies mentioned in this informational bulletin.
May 8, 2016