From the Desk of Nick Nicolaas
“LOOKING OVER THE HORIZON”
What Will the Future Bring?
Gold, Crude Oil, the US$, the Bond Market and the US Stock Markets
Chinese Markets and Global Investment Implications Moving Forward
August 2, 2015
My From the Desk of Nick Nicolaas letter (FDNN) featuring “What Will the Future Bring” will henceforth become a paid for by Subscription publication with TIMELY analysis to assist you and I in making positive Trading decisions to benefit our Collective Financial Wealth and Wellbeing during these increasingly turbulent markets.
I will issue a minimum of two (2) FDNN letters a month.
Three (3) months $400;
Six (6) months $600; and
Twelve (12) months $1,000
This FDNN letter today is Free of charge and, from time to time, I will continue to send you a Free FDNN letter.
Please note that the Free (FDNN) letter will NOT be on a TIMELY basis to benefit your Trading decisions.
My website has been redesigned and will Go Live sometime this week. The redesign is to accommodate mobile friendly access and to be able to accept Credit Card payment from Subscribers to my From the Desk of FDNN letter.
My forecasting FDNN letter is mainly based on Martin Armstrong and his Blog posts which, in turn, are based on his artificial intelligent super computer “Socrates”. In addition, I learn a lot from members in my Martin Armstrong ("the Forecaster") Discussion Group.
In addition, I read many other publications written by individuals and analysts I follow and respect and who are free-thinkers with clarity of thought and vision, who base their opinions on thorough research, critical thinking, and fact-based analysis.
In order to broaden my knowledge and perspective, I will continue to read and follow the work off these individuals and analysts.
I used to subscribe to Marty’s service when it was still a via FAX service only. At that time, I did not have the money to act on his trading recommendations but, I can attest that even then, his computer generated forecasts by Baby Socrates were very accurate.
So, what will our future bring?
In this Free FDNN letter I suggest that in the near-term we have to pay close attention to the following six (6) points noted in Martin Armstrong’s Blog:
1) Gold: Cycles are Cycles and although the media today writes that gold is dead and just a pet rock which, it is said by some analysts, is usually THE bottom of the market, - - - I am here to tell you that this is not THE bottom in gold as yet. Gold is clearly starting to build towards THE major low. A reversal will take place and the Bull Market in Gold will resume but, only when THE low has been established.
2) Crude Oil: The monthly bearish reversals are at 5650 and 4667. We fell intraday to 4668, holding the critical Bearish Reversal for now. However, lower prices are still on the horizon. We are still very bearish and we have NOT seen THE bottom in Crude Oil either as yet.
3) The US$: Because of worldwide Money Flows into the only currency in the world where you can PARK huge blocks of money, the US$ will go higher and contrary to popular believe, the US$ is NOT topping out.
4) The Bond Market: Interest rates in the US will rise and, FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL OCTOBER 1, 2015, worldwide money that has gone into the US$ will go into the bond market and that market will then TOP OUT on October 1, 2015.
5) The US Stock Markets: Today’s US market downturn is just a false downward spike going into the Sept 30/Oct 1, 2015 ECM turnaround date. Post October 1, 2015 we expect money from the Bond Market to flow into the US Markets.
6) The Canadian$: The Greenback closed against the Can$, settling on the cash, at 13088 and above the 2008 high of 1008. We show resistance at the 13346 level with key resistance at 13535-13590 zone. This is the real critical area for exceed that warns of a possible further rally up to the 13900-14200 level with a gap there after to 14900 followed by 15900.
There are two trends in play right now:
- The Dow has still been unable to make new highs in dollar terms, but the underlying support has come from foreign investors on the US$ currency play consequently there has been no serious crash but only a false move downward;
- The flight to quality continues in the bond market and the US Treasury curve continues to benefit as, for now, a lot of money is leaving the stock market in favor of bonds going into Martin Armstrong’s ‘Economic Confidence Model’ (ECM) turnaround date of October 1, 2015.
The monthly July close in Gold saw the key Bearish Reversal at 1084 hold for now, but is the line of demarcation. A weekly or month-end closing beneath this should signal we will break the $1000 barrier and test the 1980 high of 875 to 904 level. The Technical Support for August is 1029.
My Primary focus since 1980 has been on the mining industry, which is NOT easy to do these days and will even become much harder as the mining and commodities markets continue their downward Cycle spiral which started on June 13, 2011 and which we expect to continue until the end of 2016.
This downward trend can be quite beneficial to us because, as Adam Hamilton wrote on July 26, 2015:
“There are plenty of great gold miners out there so amazingly profitable even today that they are trading at dirt-cheap single-digit P/E ratios! There are plenty with all-in sustaining costs far below current gold levels, that could survive if not thrive even if gold plunged by another quarter or more. There are some gold miners now trading at total market capitalization less than their cash in the bank, which is epically cheap.”
My PhD. geology friend, Chris Wilson, Director and Principle Consultant at at Exploraion Alliance, who really understands the Mining Industry and is an avid researcher and reader, says [my emphasis or comment]:
“Everybody is hanging off the hope that one of these soothsayers [I have been reading about] can look into the crystal ball. It is no longer just Nero fiddling as Rome burns - everybody is fiddling - rather than taking direct action and owning their responsibility. It is simple - oil is coming off and oil companies are getting hammered. Unlike many gold companies they pay good dividends. [Good companies in both the gold and oil market and especially those that pay dividends are king. Over time we will make you aware of these dividend paying investment opportunities]
With gold - pick a big royalty company and a good miner (B2Gold) and use the volatility up and down to advantage. [I totally agree with picking a good royalty company which we will make you aware of and his B2Gold pick is right on the money]
The world has gone mad - everybody wants instant gratification and would rather hang on a slender conspiracy story than actually take responsibility and go to work.
We should be embracing this opportunity – rather than freaking out [Absolutely, this opportunity and those that we will uncover in in future]. But we should embrace it on back of hard work, knowledge gained, and a Zen like approach.”
Chris Wilson also points to a good article by Hunter Hillcoat, an analyst at Investec, who says:
“UK miners including Randgold, which has mines across Africa, and Centamin, which runs a mine in Egypt and started paying its first dividend this year, benefit from being debt-free. That is a big contrast with companies such as Barrick or AngloGold Ashanti. It is the balance sheet that starts to concern investors when the margins get squeezed,” Mr. Hillcoat points out
Yes FDNN readers, as Chris Wilson says:
“Debt-free is the take away and companies like that will weather any storm and snap up the good stuff”. [Beautifully stated by Chris]
John Mauldin, another analyst I follow and respect wrote his July 31, 2015 “Thoughts from the Frontline” on the transformation taking place in China. John’s missive on China certainly is a TIMELY and worthwhile read. It certainly adds to the certainty that “everything in the world is interrelated”. China’s resilient real economy albeit, with slower future growth but, with its amazing growth in the Service Sector today, will have far-reaching global investment implications as we move forward.
Once Beta test are complete and Socrates is fully up and running, then to add to my knowledge base, I will subscribe to several of the offered services by Martin Armstrong and Princeton Economics International that are of interest to me. You may decide to do so as well to benefit your own specific personal Trades and interests.
I will be attending the, sold out, World Economic Conference in Princeton on November 7 & 8, 2015 where Marty will be revealing a lot more about Socrates and its ECM. While there, I will also be able to ask Marty direct questions.
My subscription based FDNN letter will continue to bring Subscribers investment opportunities in the mining business however; in addition, I will also report on investment opportunism in the Technology, Health, Pharmaceutical and BioTech industries.
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Friends, always remember, “sell a little too early as well as a little too late”, never be too greedy and try not to sell everything at the top
("you will never go broke taking a profit")!
It is all about making money!
Don't hesitate to call or contact me and ask me what I am doing during these volatile, violent and sometimes difficult to understand Markets.
Stay Tuned for our Next FDNN letter!!
Happy investing from Mining Interactive Corp. in sunny Vancouver, Canada
Nick L. Nicolaas
Direct: +1 (604) 657-4058