- The Week that Was
- Interesting Comentary by Martin Armstrong
- The Market for September 5 and the Week
Deutscher Text (frei übersetzt durch Google) – Click Here
September 4, 2016
week that Was - Interesting Comments by Martin Armstrong - The Market for Monday
September 5 and the Week
I still receive
e-mails from investors who are frustrated with Martin Armstrong’s
interpretations which they feel are after-the-fact. In addition they feel that the Socrates
results are 1) No better than blindfolded dart throws; 2) Information is not
clear and actionable; 3) The Socrates (SOC) arrays are fuzzy, subjective and
contradictory; and 4) The Global Market Watch (GMW) pattern recognition is a
guaranteed way to lose money FAST.
Many investors are
confused. They realize that no trading
system is perfect but, they wonder if SOC analyzes markets well enough to make them
more money than they can lose. In other
words, they are not confident enough to enter trades ahead of time, based on the
SOC forecasts and alerts.
One of these
investors wrote: “It would be beneficial to have Martin
Armstrong (Marty or MA) post a theoretical trading account based
on the Socrates information”.
Our answer to the above is this: In order to prove to those confused investors
and naysayers that SOC factually
is a perfect trading system, I have
provided below, not just a theoretical account
of trading based on the SOC information but, a factual account of the trades we made during the week based
on SOC entitled “The Week that Was”.
Preface: 1) As a general rule in Day Trading, our
resolve is NOT to hold any positions overnight and certainly not over a weekend. It is our view that a lot can happen
overnight or over a weekend. On a daily
basis SOC has no idea of kneejerk reactions in advance either and this
also adds to our resolve not to hold positions overnight or over a weekend; and
2) Our Day Trading
during any week is based on the analysis, forecast and signals we receive from
SOC each morning; and
3) As Marty
stated in his August 30 Blog:
I have had a good nose for trading. But
I am not infallible because I am human.
Whenever I have thought something might happen, it is the computer who
is correct. The computer has proven me
wrong plenty of times.”; and
4) We wish that we could
have the same experience and nose as Marty but, the point we like to make is
that we are not infallible either
and when it comes to interpreting SOC then in all cases, Marty is THE ultimate interpreter of its
forecasts and signals.
“The Week that Was”
SOC analysis for
the S&P 500 Day Index Futures
a) Daily: Turning BACK DOWN; Weekly: Reaction High and Monthly: Still BULLISH; and
Immediate, Short-Term and Intermediate Trends were mainly Neutral and
Bearish. So, we decided to trade the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures on the Short
side based on that SOC analysis. Because
it was only the start of the week, we based our decision on the Daily and Weekly forecast however, we
should have been paying more attention to the Monthly, which showed Still BULLISH (with Bullish in capital
letters) forecast. Because, the S&P 500 Day Index Futures
did not BACK DOWN on Monday but, it ramped up instead, to our chagrin we ended
up with a loss of about a half (½%) percent for the day.
We decided to switch to cautiously trading the Comex 5000 Silver Futures on the short
side based on that day’s SOC NY
Silver Comex Futures analysis and forecast of Daily: Temp Low; Weekly: New
Lows Possible; and Monthly: Caution. Now that was a good day because we made more
than 4% on our money.
After reading the SOC NY Silver Comex Futures analysis several times stating Daily: Preparing to Breakout; Weekly: WARNING WATERFALL IN MOTION
(Capital Letters again); and Monthly:
Caution, we still decided to very cautiously go Long the Comex 5000 Silver Futures however,
remembering that Silver on the Daily showed it was only just Preparing
to Breakout and then when we saw, during
the day, that Gold proceeded to
break its Bearish Reversal of
1,313.20, we turned on a dime and immediately
went Short the Comex 5000 Silver
Futures. The result for the day was we
made over 7% on our capital on both our Long and Short trades.
day we first took into consideration MA’s ‘Investor Level’ - Private Blog posted before
Market Close on August 31:
now penetrated the July low and a close today beneath 1310 [Broke through its Bearish Reversal of 1,313.20 on Wednesday] will be a TECHNICAL indication that
we should follow the pattern we laid out in the video for the gold report. You
can easily see that we have tested the top of the downward channel and the
uptrend channel resides with the low at 1264 for now. So far, there is no
change in the long-term view. We never achieved the Monthly Bullish at
1362 since the highest closing was July and that was 1349. The July high
was a perfect 7 months up and now 1362 should begin to be the major resistance
We elected that first Daily Bearish at 1330. We had
another at 1230 and then 1313. Now we have a gap with the next Daily Bearish
coming in at 1278.70, 1259.30, 1252, 1244, and 1236.5 then another big cap down
to the 1206-1201 level.
So far so good. We may yet get that slingshot discussed
in the video.
We only elected the 1330 Daily Bearish. We did have another I did not mention at 1320.
The next one we will see today [August
31]. They are basis bearish futures not
the spot month of September.”
reading the Private Blog above, we then studied the Silver, Gold, Dow and S&P. The
SOC analysis for the NY Silver COMEX
Futures stated Daily: Testing
Support; Weekly: New Lows Possible
and the Daily Trends were mostly
Neutral and Bearish.
we studied the SOC The Dow Jones
Industrial Index Cash analysis for that day showing Daily: POSSIBLE Important Low Weekly: Caution plus the Daily and Weekly Trend being mostly Bearish (some Neutral). We then studied the S&P 500 Day Index Futures with Daily: Short Covering Weekly:
Holding plus the Daily and Weekly Trend being mostly Neutral.
Because, the Dow leads the S&P we finally decided
against trading the NY Silver COMEX
Futures and decided our best cause of action would be to short the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures for that day and then buy them back to
cover our short trades. For us that decision
was the right one and we did very well indeed with excellent profits on Thursday.
September 2 (The last trading day before the Long
The U.S. jobs
report on Friday was viewed as good enough to support stocks but, not being good enough to encourage the
Fed to move with a rate increase on September 20-21 FOMC meeting. Of course, keeping rates low will benefit the stock market, since it
translates into cheaper borrowing costs for U.S. companies.
end, it was the U.S. jobs report early
on Friday that mainly influenced our Day Trading decision to trade the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures on the Long
side for that day. In addition, the SOC Dow jones industrial Index analysis
showed Daily: Turning Back Up the SOC
S&P 500 day Futures
showed Daily: Turning Back Up and
indicated Daily: Short Covering
which added to our resolve to go Long.
decision was an excellent one and resulted in another great day with excellent
Our Goal is to
make profits of 10% a week and based on SOC analysis we did just that this past
week and more. And - - - we are still
only using ‘Trader Level 1.0’ and not 2.0 as yet. Say we trade 50 weeks a year then that should
give us on balance 500% or more on our Day Trades - - - which certainly beats
any interest we get from our banks J.
So, that was “The Week that Was”.
Interesting Commentary by Marty
Blog August 29: Are Central Bankers Coming to a Bitter End?
[Central Bankers] are now trapped, unable to reverse policy without sending a
signal that they’ve have failed. The
great fear is the collapse in confidence, which is on the horizon. They wake up from a nightmare in cold sweat
fearing the curtain will be pulled back and the world will witness there is no
wizard as in that film – the Wizard of Oz.
central bankers tremble at market sensitivity to any change in the perception
of what they are up to next. They sought
this power of a demigod, and now live in fear that they might be discovered as
confused and powerless. This is now
all about policy makers being unable to admit complete and utter failure. This is the foundation from which a Phase
Transition can emerge. Once the majority
begin to realize that the central bankers have been like con-men, that is when
the stampede begins with a mad rush to private assets.”
29 Blog - US Debt: who is Selling and who is buying?
is also moving shorter-term for the declining trend in public confidence. I
attended a meeting of a very large pension fund who has followed our advice.
They too SOLD TREASURIES and moved to corporate debt to get
the yield. The rating agency came in and exclaimed that they were taking on
more risk. They responded by saying they did their due diligence on our advice
and confirmed that the top of the crop of corporate debt does not default, but
governments do. The premium of corporate yields over Treasuries is declining.
Our smartest clients are jumping on board. You cannot forecast the future
without known the past.”
The Market for Monday
September 5 and the Week by Marty and SOC
following is from the MA Private Blog
which subscribers to the SOC ‘Investor Level’ service received on
week tends to be a turning point in many markets. Looking at gold, our Weekly
Bearish Reversal lies at 1311. Our Weekly Bearish in the Dow remains at 18368.
In Silver, the Weekly Bearish is down in the $17 range so no chance of electing
that right now. In Crude, we have a minor Weekly Bearish at 44.35, but the main
one lies at 43.10.”
Caveat: My notes below are only our interpretation of the SOC
forecasts and alerts and we are still in of interpreting the SOC signals. That add to the learning process, I trust
that I will learn a lot more about SOC at the Technical Analysis session when I attend the MA World Economic Conference, November
11-13 in Orlando, Florida: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-economics-upcoming-events/world-economic-conference/2016-world-economic-conference-tickets-available-now/
After reviewing SOC’s
analysis for Monday we immediately decided to focus our Day Trades for the 1st
day of the week on Silver and go Long the NY Silver COMEX Futures for the day.
The reason being that SOC indicated:
Moving Higher, Weekly: Moving Higher;
2) The Indicator Energy: Bullish Momentum:
Bullish and Trend: Bullish;
3) The Daily Level Indicator Description
Trend: Immediate Trend: Bullish, Short-Term Momentum: Bullish, Short-Term Trend: Bullish and Immediate Momentum: Bullish.
was a no-brainer decision to go Long with our Day Trades tomorrow.
Aided by Socrates we will be able to see the
you have not done so yet then do yourself a favour and
for the Investor Level service Here:
HERE to Marty's daily Blog
It’s all about profitable trading!
Stay Tuned for the Socrates
Trader Level 2.0 launch and our Next, free of charge, 'From the Desk of Nick Nicolaas' (FDNN) letter
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