September 8, 2014
I have received several e-mails today like the one noted below in reply to my August 30 2014 Alert and Video - What will the Future Bring? (mininginteractive.com) Here is my reply to those e-mails:
The Sept 3-4 turning point has occurred but I don't see any particular major change in the stock market? Please inform if you think the major change can still occur this week?
Answer: Dear B…:
Yes, it is all very confusing and all I am trying to do is to make sense out of the Martin Armstrong September 3/4 Economic Confidence Model (ECM) turnaround date.
I live in North America and I interpret things from a North American perspective and NOT from any place else in the world;
- These are turning points in the ECM and they do not always reflect the directions of individual markekts because some markets are peaking while others bottom. These turning points are on a global scale since the ECM is a world model. The 1987 turning point was to the day, but it picked the low of the crash NOT the high. At that time, the US share markets were not the focus but a reflection of the real change underlying everything – i.e. Capital Flows;
- I am only trying to make sense out of the information that Martin Armstrong, aided by his Artificial Intelligence (his computer ‘Socrates’), has provided to you and me.
My analysis regarding the information provided by Armstrong
- This not necessarily only about the share markets. What we are experiencing today, is NOT the bull market of old – it has very to do with Capital Flows and that is what started to turn here last week. On September 3 the Euro fell below 1:30 to the US$ and is on its way to Par with the US$; and as a consequence
- money flowed into the US share market (Capital Flow); with the result that
- on September 3, the Nasdaq posted a High of 4,610.14; and on September 4 the S&P posted an intraday High of 2,011.17 and the DOW 17,161.55. Please note: these were 52 week highs in all 3 markets; and now to the geopolitical aspects
- On September 3 US President Obama during his visit to Estonia threw down the ‘gauntlet’ and squarely blamed Russia for the fighting in the Ukraine, and vowed to defend the Baltic states which he suggested are threatened by Moscow. Please note: a) Putin is viewed as a hero in Russia for going into Crimea; b) The shelves in the stores in Moscow are empty because of the imposed sanctions by the US, EU and the UK (the “West”) and especially empty from the food that used to come for the Baltic farms. When your economy declines you never blame yourself and it is always somebody else. In other words, Putin has been handed 'a culprit' for the Russian decline on a golden platter and that is - - the West; which leads us to "the Cycle of War"
- It is all about staying in control and for Putin, Obama, Merkel, Hollande, Harper Camron etc., it is the same. It is not what is best for us and our families but, only what’s best for them in order to stay in power. Yes, today the EU is delaying sanctions against Russia however, the threat of war is upon us and with Russian nationalism on Putin’s side he may very well decide to move into the Ukraine and then - - the West will accommodate Putin and retaliate;
- I stick by the statement I made in my August 30, 2014 Alert which was “be aware of the Turningpoint next week [September 3 & 4] and be very cautious no matter where you are in the world”. I am of the opinion that the share markets will be adjusting to the downside going into October/November and during these volatile times I, for one, will stay very cautious as we move forward.
I also like to quote the following by Marin Armstrong which may assist you as we move forward [my emphasis]:
August 19, 2014: This market does not appear to be in crash mode – only a correction mode buying time. The directional change last week turned the market back up. However, we have another next week and the week of 09/01 [September 3 & 4] seems to be shaping up as a high with a turn back down thereafter. So some caution is in justified. A high need not be new highs. It may be only a retest of the July high or a double top.
Corporate cash is at record highs so this market is by no means over-priced. We will still see a Phase Transition unfold. The question is timing. Once we get past this October/November people, we should see a trend form. It is possible that mixing this entire situation of a Sovereign Debt Crisis and the War Cycle we may see an extended rally into the 2016-2017 time frame as government crashes. If the markets peak in 2015 and fall back for 2 years into 2017, then it looks to be off and running into 2024.
August 27, 2014: “We have been warning of a potential cycle inversion caused by all these trends converging. We have been warning this could not be determined until September”.
Friends, we are living in very volatile times and according to Armstrong, “after October/November we should see the trend form”.
It is all about making money!
Always remember, “sell a little too early as well as a little too late”, never be too greedy and try not to sell everything at the top ("you will never go broke taking a profit")!
Stay Tuned for our Next Alert!!
Happy investing from Mining Interactive Corp. in in Vancouver, Canada,
Nick L. Nicolaas
Direct: +1 (604) 657-4058